Friday, July 26, 2019

Are we Due for a Recession?

July 2019 marks the 121st month of the current economic expansion making this the longest in US history or at least for the 150+ years we've measured business cycles. You may hear people talk about being due for a recession. Being due for a recession uses the same logic as being due for a hurricane, tornado, or a significant snowstorm. It suggests that because things have happened with a frequency in the past, they must occur at the same rate in the future. The frequency of past weather events is not part of the current weather forecast, and the frequency of previous recessions is not part of the current economic outlook. Most of the time, the economy is expanding. The last recession, "The Great Recession" lasted 18 months. The ongoing economic expansion has lasted a decade.  To draw another analogy. When you drive a car, you may drive at different speeds. Sometimes you're accelerating; sometimes you're decelerating, but you are moving forward more than you are in reverse. If you are concerned about the economy, let's talk about it. You may have more risk in your portfolio than you are comfortable with.

I've also created a YouTube video to accompany this post.