The first half of the year has been volatile as expected. The S&P 500 was down 20.58% during the first six months of this year. Looking at previous times when the S&P 500 has been down 20% or more over two consecutive quarters, the S&P 500 had double-digit returns over the following 12 months 100% of the time, averaging a gain of 31.36%. Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns, and we may not have seen the lows for 2022, but if the S&P 500 follows historical patterns, markets may be significantly higher next summer.
10/01/08 - 03/31/09 -31.28%
03/31/09 - 03/31/10 +46.57%
07/01/08 - 12/31/08 -29.70%
12/31/08 - 12/31/09 +23.45%
04/01/02 - 09/30/02 -28.89%
09/30/02 - 09/30/03 +22.16%
07/01/74 - 12/31/74 -20.30%
12/31/74 - 12/31/75 +31.55%
04/01/74 - 09/30/74 -31.86%
09/30/74 - 09/30/75 +32.00%
01/01/70 - 06/30/70 -21.81%
06/30/70 - 06/30/71 +37.10%
01/01/62 - 06/30/62 -22.84%
06/30/62 - 06/30/63 +26.70%
Data Source: YCharts
